Get your pencils out, people. It’s time to do a little number crunching on those Purple Line ridership estimates. The numbers, released by the state transit administration Monday night, could determine whether the mass-transit project is built.
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According to Joel Oppenheimer (above), a consultant working for the transit administration, the ridership numbers consider several factors, including: whether the project rolls as a rapid-bus or light-rail line; whether the route runs its own lanes or shares the roadway with cars; the number of stops; and the estimated travel time along the 16-mile route in the year 2030.
Similar formulas have been applied to other mass-transit projects across the country, as well as to Montgomery County’s Corridor Cities Transitway and Baltimore’s Red Line. The mathematical models allow federal fat cats to “compare apples to apples” when doling out funds, Oppenheimer explained.
So here’s the score on the Purple Line, according to the state transit administration:
| Bus rapid transit* options | Daily ridership (2030) | Capital costs (2007) |
| Low-investment: shared lanes, no tunnels | 29,000 – 35,000 | $450M – $520M |
| Medium-investment: some shared lanes, no tunnels | 38,000 – 41,000 | $650M – $750M |
| High-investment: dedicated lanes, some tunnels | 42,000 – 45,000 | $1.2B – $1.3B |
* “Bus rapid transit (BRT) is a branded bus service that can use standard transit vehicles or advanced technology vehicles, and operates on existing roads and/or exclusive running ways. BRT typically reduces bus travel times, improves service reliability, increases the convenience of users and ultimately increases bus ridership, possibly at a lower construction cost than rail infrastructure.” — Maryland Transit Authority
| Light-rail transit** options | Daily ridership (2030) | Capital costs (2007) |
| Low-investment: shared lanes, no tunnels | 38,000 – 41,000 | $1.2B – $1.3B |
| Medium-investment: some shared lanes, no tunnels | 42,000 – 45,000 | $1.2B – $1.4B |
| High-investment: dedicated lanes, some tunnels | 44,000 – 47,000 | $1.6B – $1.8B |
** “Light-rail transit is an electric railway system that operates single cars or short trains along rights-of-way at ground level, on aerial structures, and in tunnels. Light rail can also operate in the street mixed with vehicular traffic, in the median of a roadway or on a separate right-of-way.” — Maryland Transit Administration
Rapid-bus options take a little longer to run from place to place during rush hour, compared with light-rail alternatives.
| Travel option | Bethesda to Silver Spring | Silver Spring to College Park |
| Existing bus service*** | 23 – 27 minutes | 47 – 60 minutes |
| Existing Metro rail service*** | 35 minutes | 21 minutes |
| Low-investment bus rapid transit | 18 minutes | 34 minutes |
| High-investment light rail | 9 minutes | 25 minutes |
*** According to current WMATA schedules.
So what the hell do all of these numbers mean?
After crunching estimated ridership with travel times, capital costs and a couple of other factors, one derives the cost effectiveness per person. For federal fat cats, $23 per person is the cost-effectiveness magic number, Oppenheimer said.
Final cost-effectiveness numbers won’t happen until the transit administration whittles down probable Purple Line routes. That won’t happen until summer 2008, the transit administration states.
Updated Jan 17, 2008, at 2:55 p.m.
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I wonder what the 10 year expected ridership numbers are. In every city light rail has been implemented the 10 year ridership estimate has been met in 2 years and also grows exponentially if Transit Oriented Development (TOD) is put in place. TOD is where building towards a higher density around a 1/2 mile radius of transit stops.
If the Purple Line gets more cars off the Big Parking Lot (aka the Capitol Beltway), then I think the new line will be a success. Most commuters will come from PG County for jobs in Montgomery job centers such as Bethesda and Rockville. Silver Spring will be a significant transfer point between the Purple and Red Lines. The downside is that Silver Spring station will look like Metro Center at the peak of rush hour. A problem if you hate crowds.
47,000 beats most FTA new-start competition although the MTA cost predictions are step.
There is no question that 9 minute travel time between Bethesda and Silver Spring will make this project a winner – at least on the western end. 25 minutes for Silver Spring to College Park seems a little high although that is to the metrorail stop, not the center of campus. Presumably that is 5 minutes closer to Silver Spring. If it is 20 minutes, plan on seeing more college students in Silver Spring, which is a good thing.
I’m loving the projected nine-minute travel time from Bethesda to Silver Spring projected for the high investment light rail option, but the travel time estimates from Silver Spring to College Park don’t make the case for the project. Why spend hundreds of millions of dollars for a project that would take more time to travel from Silver Spring to College Park.
Still, as transitguy notes above, the travel modeling should compare apples to apples. The Purple Line would make a stop around the center of campus and, as anyone who has taken the metro to UMD or route 1 knows, the current metrorail stop is a long distance away from campus and route 1 and you need to catch a University bus or walk 20 minutes or so to get to these destinations on top of the train travel time.
Also, even though the light rail option would take 4 minutes longer than the existing metro option, it would not require a transfer at Fort Totten, which would be an incentive to ride the Purple Line to College Park instead of taking metro.
Here is some other food for thought:
–What are the travel time projections and cost estimates associated with specific alignments under consideration. The big question for the East Silver Spring area is whether the Purple Line would go down Wayne Avenue or in between Thayer and Silver Spring Avenues. Which option is faster? Which would cost more?
–What are some of the estimates for other points of origin and destination (ie, how long would it take to go from Langley Park to Bethesda?)
–Are the travel times based on peak period times? Off peak times? An average of the two?
–I could not find a detailed description of the travel time and cost estimates on the MTA’s purple line website, http://www.purplelinemd.com. Would it kill MTA to make something substantive available for the public?
I could be wrong I Hate Yuppies, but I remember reading a while back that the Purple line wouldn’t be at Silver Spring station, rather a few blocks away. Anybody else remember that?…again I would be mistaken.
Editor’s note: That idea has been scrapped. — JD (Dec 4, 2007)
Considering that during rush hour it takes me 45-50 minutes to get from Bethesda to Silver Spring on the beltway and 40 minutes using the backroads. I would definitly use this.
Just got back from the Netherlands and Belgium and absolutely in LOVE with the idea of a light rail in the downtown SS area.
Bring it on! I’m ready to walk and ride the rails!
If the train is above ground, it is required by law to obey all trafic signals, including red lights and stop signs. There have also two new stops have been added to the map since initial drawings. Since the state is running a deficit I am suspicious of any claims for implementing deep tunnelling.
The real motivation for the purple is development/high rises near each stop. Some may want this, but I don’t really want another to see Silver Spring turn into Bethesda, including lack of green space.
If you wish to see more information on proposed routes, visit http://www.sstop.org
elster: Do you prefer urban sprawl spreading houses into real forests (not crappy little parks)?
JG: I think the Purple Line is supposed to run parallel to the Red Line/CCT through the SS Metro…
re: “The real motivatioon for the purple line is developing high rises near each stop.”
I’ve heard this claim batted about before and I wish that those that make it would back it up with some documentation. The MTA’s goals for the purple line, as stated on http://www.purplelinemd.com do include the following objective:
“Increase the potential for Transit Oriented Development at existing and proposed stations in the corridor.”
But this objective is included along with eight other goals and these goals are not ranked in order of importance.
I don’t have time to list the many reasons why transit oriented development (TOD) is in the public interest but, suffice it to say, TOD does not necessarily mean enormous apartments and it does not have to consist entirely of high-end residential and commercial development. Montgomery County and Prince George’s County have an interest in promoting mixed income housing and there are some great strategies on how to do this that can be found on the websites of the Center for Neighborhood Technology and Reconnecting America
Elster – The population of the US grows at 3Million/year at the moment. Where do YOU propose those people live? I say they live in dense urban developements where they can take mass transit instead of driving on overcrowded roads. I say they ride an electrified train that *could* be running off, solar, wind, nuclear power rather than driving cars that will be generating carbon for at LEAST 20 more years – since we haven’t been researching it for the past 30 years like we should ahve been. Growth is guaranteed, the best we can do is make it smart growth, hate to tell ya, but you live in the center of a very ideal location for smart growth.
How do we really know at this point the speed of the Purple Line (the time between locations)? Several years ago 8 stops (some will be actual stations) were planned. According to the MTA website 21 stops are being studied. MTA has, for the past 2 years, been bringing up the possibility of more stops to garner more support. Of course, there will not be that many stops, because MTA well knows the more stops, the slower the speed, and the slower the speed, the lower the ridership estimates will (or should!) be.
They are just looking at what it would be with the current stops to determine the speed from point A to point B.
Niko: So, how many current Purple Line stops are there? It would seem if the purple line traveled from Silver Spring to Bethesda with no stopping between at an average speed you could easily figure out the time, but it if stops at one or more places in-between that would slow it down. Likewise, if it travelled from from Langely Park to Silver Spring with no stopping, that would be one thing. But undoubtedly it will stop at Long Branch (that is a political given). Again, the more stops, the slower the speed.
Greg:
The number of stops planned between Silver Spring and Bethesda has not changed in years. Woodside, Lyttonsville, and Chevy Chase Lake. MTA representatives told us at a Bethesda focus group meeting last spring that they will run light rail at 35-45 mph in this stretch. Doing the math, it works out that assuming reasonable station stopping, waiting, and starting times the light rail cars can make the 4.5 mile trip in the advertised 9 minutes without having to exceed 40 mph. Even with the stops factored in, the light rail will beat the buses stuck in East-West Highway by a big margin.
Wayne P. Thanks for the information. Still, the MTA website says they are looking at 21 stops and Mike Madden of MTA emailed me this summer that they are studying “about 20 stops.” Assuming Silver Spring, Woodside, Lyttonsville, Chevy Chase Lake, and Bethesda constitute five “stops,” that still leaves a lot of potential stops for the other 11.5 miles. By the way I know what you are saying about the difficulties of the Silver Spring-Bethesda commute. Perhaps building a $100 million overpass at Connecticut and East-West Highway would help, whether or not the Purple Line is built.
Greg – the tran in Europe took about 15 min to clear 17 stops. I’d say that’s pretty impressive. Didn’t even think about taking a taxi with that kind of efficency – I just waved at all the poor suckers stuck in traffic.
The Purple Line will only reduce bus service for the good people in Langley Park who require bus for their transportation needs. It will destroy East Silver Spring with noisy, dangerous surface light rail and destroy the capitol crescent trail, the greatest linear open space in America, where kids sell lemonades to the trail users on weekends and nice quiet neighborhoods in Chevy Chase will be revaged by the noisy outdated technology that was ripped up from places like Georgia Avenue only several decades ago.
The Baltimore Light Rail takes longer to get downtown from the suburbs than it does to drive, even in rush hour. It is slow, noisy, dangerous (every week you hear an incident of a collision with a pedestrian or vehicle). This is what the MTA will build in Montgomery County. Are you prepared for that? Sounds like a sour deal for me.
MTA and O’Malley will not finance a European trolley system in Montgomery County. They’re going to replicate the baltimore system to increase the state’s purchasing power. And MTA, not WMATA will run the line, that means more trash, poorer maintenance, and ultimately lower ridership.
Editor’s note: This comment has been edited for content. — JD (Dec 7, 2007)
Reports of the “destruction” of the Capital Crescent Trail are greatly exagerated. In fact, many trail users think the trail will actually be improved overall by being rebuilt with the Purple Line. The Washington Area Bicyclist Association supports the Purple Line transit/trail project, and the Coalition for the CCT follows the issue closely and remains neutral since the benefits offset the negative impacts on the Trail.
Check out my webside, http://www.silverspringtrails.org to see why this is so. Go also to the Coalition website at http://www.cctrail.org and see their analysis on their Action Page.
Finish the trail, build light-rail
Light rail represents the worst of both worlds – the capital expense of rail with the speed, safety, and aesthetics of surface transportation. A new Metro tunnel is the only real option. It is hugely expensive, but 25-50 years down the road it will not seem so (as does the Metro system today)
How about Potomac, nope no dense development there. How about Takoma Park, they fought development and appear to have won. It seems unfair to take an acre of parkland from East Silver Spring and put kids in danger with the train going near schools.
The light rail would ravage the Trail between Bethesda and Silver Spring.
Go to http://www.SaveTheTrailPETITION.org to see photos of the mature trees — thousands of them that will be bulldozed.
Trains will run 10 feet or less from the Trail. Trains up to 300 feet long will pass hikers and bikers every 3 minutes at speeds up to 55 miles per hour according to engineers for the project.
Who would want to walk on the Trail for peaceful reflection or to commune with family and friends?
Currently, the Trail offers a unique escape to the tranquility that only natural greenspace offers.
I am somewhat new to this debate so I apologize if this is an old issue, but …. I have seem computer modeled estimates or ridership for the different options and I have seen figures related to who would “support” different options with their vote. While those are interesting, has anyone actually formally asked/studied whether people will use the various options? What I mean is, has the proper research/surveying been done to really understand who would ride any of the alternatives? I specialize in market research and from many years of experience, I can tell you that without question, the best data you will get is from people who may or may not consume a service. The data may already be available and I just do not know where to look, but if anyone has even a brief though about spending the kind of money any of the options would require before formally studying the potential comsumers of the service, they should not be involved in making major decisions like this as, in my opinion, they would clearly have no idea what they are doing.